MUMBAI: In its latest report on the global advertising marketplace, Magna Global estimates that media owner advertising revenues grew by +3.2 percent in 2015 to $503 billion. This is lower than the previous forecast (+3.9 percent in June 2015) and represents a slowdown compared to the 2014 growth (+4.9 percent).
In 2016, advertising revenues will be boosted by economic stabilization and the incremental spending generated around non-recurring even-year events (US Presidential and General elections, UEFA Football championship in Europe, Summer Olympics in Brazil). Magna Global is thus predicting ad sales to grow by +4.6 percent, marginally less than its previous forecast. Neutralizing the impact of non-recurring events (NREs) in 2014, 2015 and 2016 (generating approximately 0.9 percent of extra growth in even-numbered years), the global ad market would have grown by +4.1 percent in 2015 and +3.7 percent in 2016, which suggest no real 2016 acceleration in the underlying ad demand, beyond the cyclical drivers.
In terms of geographies, Asia-Pacific emerged as the most dynamic region with a growth rate of 6.5 per cent. As China is slowing down (slightly), India has become the most dynamic economy among BRICs and among all the large nations monitored by Magna. Real DGP grew by 7.3 per cent in 2015 and will grow again by 7.5 per cent in 2016 according to the IMF. In that context advertising spending grew by 16.3 per cent in 2015 to approximately $8 billion allowing India to become the 12th biggest ad market in the world at the expense of Russia.
Looking at India specifically, Magna reports that advertising revenue will increase by Rs 68 billion (Rs 6,800 crore) and is expected to touch Rs 487 billion (Rs 48,700 crore) in 2015. Television revenue on the back of increased volume will add +18.5 percent (December 2014 +11.9 percent) to reach Rs 200 billion (Rs 20,000 crore). While the television market’s share is up by a percentage point (41 per cent), print goes down from 41 per cent to 38 per cent to touch Rs 183 billion (Rs 18,300 crore) with a growth of 7.7 per cent. In 2016 television and print is estimated to grow at +15.1 percent and 8.2 per cent respectively.
Digital formats will continue to grow the maximum at 49 percent to touch Rs 57 billion (Rs 5,700 crore), increasing their market share to 12 per cent. Ad sales generated from video and social increasingly will be through mobile impressions while the desktop in the near future will still be the domain for search and display. Share of mobile will increase from 32 per cent to close to half the pie in 2016.
Newer formats and revenue streams after Twitter and Instagram opening up new advertising and influencer management platforms, bandwidth expansion through 4G launch and traditional advertisers increasing their digital budgets, will contribute to the growth of 67.3 per cent in 2016.
Radio, with a market share of 4 percent will also grow at 14 per cent in 2015. Through the expansion of foot print, and there by volume, is estimated to add 16 per cent in 2016. Last but not the least, OOH will grow at 11.9 percent in 2015 and by another 10.4 per cent in 2016.
Magna Global estimates total advertising revenue to touch Rs 576 billion (Rs 57,600 crore) in 2016. The T20 World Cup, encouraging response from audiences to non-cricketing leagues, state elections, 4G launch are some of the drivers for the advertising economy in 2016 in India. E-commerce will continue to pursue GMV’s, most action will be seen in the telecom sector followed by auto and FMCG advertising.
Digital television and expansion of the measurement panel will allow advertisers to reach more consumers and broadcaster to better monetize their audience in 2016. While so far India is bucking the global trend of declining spends on Print by growing at a high single digit rate, Digital market shares are projected to equal Print by 2020.
Hope 2016 round of data will get the currency out of the data dark period and aid the category to fight market share erosion. The second round of the Phase III auction, commissioning of the new stations won in the first round of bidding will keep radio top of mind.
