Mumbai: The exit poll survey conducted by ABP News and CVoter has thrown up mixed results for the two major parties, BJP and Congress, in the five states — Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram — where Assembly elections were conducted this month. While Rajasthan is likely to stay true to its 'revolving door' trend and see a return of the BJP to power, the Congress may clinch Madhya Pradesh. According to the ABP News-CVoter exit poll, a neck-and-neck fight is predicted in Chhattisgarh, with the Congress placed marginally ahead. In Mizoram, the newly formed Zoram People's Movement is likely to give the ruling Mizo National Front a run for its money, making it a really close contest.

The elections to five states took place on four dates between November 7 and 30, with Chhattisgarh going to polls in two phases and the rest in a single phase.

In Mizoram, which went to polls on 7 November, CM Zoramthanga-led MNF is predicted to win anywhere between 15 and 21 seats in the 40-member assembly, down from 26 in 2018. The ZPM may bag 12-18 seats. In terms of vote share, MNF is likely to have 32% voter support, against ZPM’s 28.7%, according to the ABP News-CVoter exit poll. The Congress could bag 2-8 seats with a vote share of 24.7%.

The ABP News-CVoter exit poll says Chhattisgarh, where the elections were held in two phases (on 7 November and 17 November), could stay with the Congress but the contest is very close. With the Congress predicted to win 41-53 seats, down from 68 in 2018, it finds the BJP breathing down its neck with a seat projection of 36-48. The magic number in the 90-member House is 46. The BJP, which won only 15 seats in 2018, appears to have increased its vote share from 33% in the last election to 41.2% this time, while the Congress vote share has gone up only marginally from 43.1% to 43.4%.

According to the ABP News-CVoter exit poll, Madhya Pradesh is predicted to go with the Congress, with a seat projection of 113-137 against the ruling BJP’s 88-112. BSP may get 1-5 seats. In terms of vote share, the Congress has a voter support of 44.1%, while the BJP is enjoying the backing of 40.7%.

The ABP News-CVoter exit poll predicts that Rajasthan will bring back the BJP to power, giving it 94-114 seats, and foiling the Congress’ efforts to break the state's historical pattern of alternating between BJP and Congress. The ruling Congress is likely to win only 71-91 seats, losing at least 19 seats from its 2018 tally. The majority mark in this election is 100 as polling was held for 199 seats, and not all 200, because of the demise of a candidate. Election to this seat will be conducted on a later date.

In Telangana, which went to polls on Thursday, 30 November, the ABP News-CVoter exit poll has predicted an upset for chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao who may not be able to hold on to power for a third term. His Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is projected to win only 38-54 seats this time, down from its 2018 tally of 88, paving the way for the Congress that is predicted to win 49-65 seats. The majority mark is 60 in the 119-member Assembly. The BJP, which put all its might during the campaigning, may get 5-13 seats. Others, including AIMIM, are likely to get 5-9 seats. At 40.7%, the Congress vote share is up 12.4 percentage points, while the BRS vote share is down from 46.9% to 38.8%.

The counting of votes will take place on 3 December. While the final verdict will only be known on Sunday, the ABP News-CVoter exit poll can give you a sense of which way the wind appears to be blowing.

Methodology:

The current survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Exit Poll / Post Poll personal interviews conducted on the polling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide, all
confirmed voters. 
Survey date: November 7-30, 2023
Sample size - Rajasthan: 34,690; MP: 45,521; Chhattisgarh: 22,656; Telangana: 19,791; Mizoram: 8,781
LS Seats Covered: 25 in Rajasthan; 29 in MP; 11 in Chhattisgarh; 1 in Mizoram; 17 in Telangana
VS Seats Covered: 199 in Rajasthan; 230 in MP; 90 in Chhattisgarh; 40 in Mizoram; 119 in Telangana
Margin Of Error (macro level): +/- 3% 
Margin Of Error (micro Level): .+_/_- 5% 
Confidence Level: 95%