Mumbai:  The ruling BJP may emerge as the single largest party and may just touch the half-way mark of 115 seats in the Madhya Pradesh assembly election to be held next month on November 17, says India TV-CNX opinion poll survey. Results of the survey were telecast today on the news channel.

The opinion poll projections show, BJP may win 115 seats, compared to 109 seats it had won five years ago in the 230-member assembly. The main opposition party Congress may win 110 seats, compared to 114 seats it had won five years ago, says the survey. ‘Others’ including independents hold the key, and they are likely to win five seats. In the last elections, seven seats were won by independents and local parties.

Vote share projections show, BJP may get 44.38 per cent, Congress may get 42.51 per cent, and 'Others' may get 13.11 pc. In the 2018 elections, BJP had got 41.02 pc, Congress had got 40.89 pc, and 'Others' had got 18.09 pc votes.

REGION-WISE SEAT PROJECTIONS

Region-wise, India TV-CNX poll projections show:  

In Baghelkhand having 51 seats, BJP may win 31, Congress may win 19 and Others may win one seat.

In Bhopal having 24 seats, BJP may win 16 seats leaving the remaining eight seats to Congress.

In Chambal having 34 seats, Congress may win 22 seats, leaving 12 seats to BJP.

In Mahakaushal having 47 seats, Congress may win 26 seats, BJP may win 19 seats, and Others may win two seats.

In Malwa having 46 seats, BJP may win 25 seats, Congress may win 20 seats, and the remaining one seat may go to Others.

In Nimar having 28 seats, Congress may win 15 seats, BJP may win 12 seats, and the remaining one seat may go to Others.

PREFERENCE FOR CHIEF MINISTER

The survey findings show Shivraj Singh Chauhan leading with 44.32 per cent respondents wishing him to continue as chief minister. Chauhan is closely followed by State Congress chief Kamal Nath with 38.58 per cent respondents showing their preference for him as the next CM. BJP leader and union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia stands in third position with only 9.00 per cent, Congress leader Digvijay Singh with 1.52 pc, and ‘Others’ being preferred by 6.58 pc respondents.

KEY FINDINGS

•  A whopping 65.32 per cent respondents said, there should be a caste-based census in MP, while 20.63 pc were not in favour. 14.05 pc said, Can’t say.
•  27.4 per cent respondents said, unemployment was the biggest issue in MP, while 21.05 pc said, Development is the biggest issue. 19.11 per cent said, Inflation was the biggest issue. 14.42 pc said, Hindutva was the biggest issue, while 7.23 pc said, Corruption was the biggest issue. 
•  46.83 pc respondents rated Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s performance on a scale between 8 and 10, while 40.67 per cent rated him on a scale between 0 and 4.  12.5 per cent rated his performance on a scale between 5 and 7. 
•  37 per cent respondents said, they were fully satisfied with the work done by their MLA in the last five years, while 32.12 per cent said they were fully dissatisfied. 
•  Asked which government performed better in MP, 42.43 pc said BJP government, while 37.02 per cent said Congress government.
•  On a question asked from women voters only, 47.3 per cent women said, Chouhan’s Ladli Behna Yojana will have an impact on the election, while 36.5 per cent said ‘No’.
•  Asked which party’s welfare scheme (guarantees) was good, 43.62 per cent opted for BJP while 42.15 pc opted for Congress. 
•  44.75 per cent voters said they were dissatisfied with the state government’s handling of Covid pandemic crisis, while 35.61 per cent voters said, they were satisfied. 
•  A whopping 53.25 per cent respondents said, BJP’s decision to field central ministers and MPs in election will give advantage to the party, while 37.18 per cent said, No.

The opinion poll survey was carried out by CNX among 11,500 respondents (5,758 males and 5,742 females) across 115 randomly selected constituencies. The respondents were selected randomly for a sample population encompassing diverse professions, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, petty shopkeepers, migrant labourers, registered medical practitioners, auto and taxi drivers, real estate dealers, among others. The age group ranged from 18 to 60 years old.