Mumbai: An opinion poll conducted by ABP News and CVoter, a significant indicator and the last one ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has revealed interesting insights. The latest opinion poll shows the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in a dominating position, predicting its return for a third term with a comfortable majority — 373 seats out of the total 543. With a vote share of 46.6 per cent, the alliance looks set to strengthen its position compared to the 2019 election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP is projected to secure a significant portion of the NDA's overall success, with its vote share and seat count increasing since last time.

Key highlights from the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll    

Vote & seat shares

The I.N.D.I.A bloc is expected to win 155 seats, gathering a vote share of 39.8 per cent. In 2019, these parties, not contesting as a bloc, had together garnered 36.6 per cent of the total votes.

The NDA also shows an increase in its vote share to 46.6 per cent, from 45.1 per cent in 2019, with its seat tally going up to 373 against the majority mark of 272. The BJP remains the dominant force, though some of the allies show slightly reduced contributions.

State-wise and party-specific highlights

Tamil Nadu shows a strong performance by the DMK+, which is expected to take 30 out of the total 39 seats, leaving the rest of the 9 seats for the I.N.D.I.A partner Congress.

Andhra Pradesh sees an NDA (TDP+BJP+JSP) sweep. Though YSRCP is projected to poll 39.9 per cent of the votes, against the NDA's 46.7 per cent, it won’t manage to win more than five seats. The rest of the 20 seats are likely to go to the NDA.

Kerala stands out with UDF leading with 43.4 per cent of the votes, in contrast to the NDA's low support at 21.2 per cent. The ruling LDF is projected to corner 30.9 per cent of the votes, but all 20 seats are likely to be going to the Congress-led UDF.

West Bengal shows TMC's dominance with 43.5 per cent of the vote, surpassing the NDA's 41.9 per cent. In terms of seats, the TMC and NDA are standing neck and neck, expecting to win 20 seats each in the 42-member house, leaving two for the Congress.

Telangana appears to be a divided vote. While the I.N.D.I.A bloc is projected to corner 10 seats, NDA is likely to get 5, leaving one each for BRS and AIMIM.  

Assam, the Northeast state with the highest number of seats (14), is projected to stay with the NDA, giving 12 seats to the ruling alliance.

Odisha showcases BJD in a competitive position with a 35.6 per cent vote share against the NDA's 40.9 per cent. In terms of seat count, the BJP is expected to bag 13 seats and the BJD 7, leaving 1 for the Congress in the 23-member House.

In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, which saw state elections late last year, and Gujarat, it’s BJP all the way, according to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll. The BJP-led alliance is projected to win all 25 seats in the desert state, all 26 in Gujarat, 28 out of the 29 seats in MP, and 10 out of the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. In Karnataka too, the NDA is projected to win 23 out of the 28 seats.  

Punjab highlights a fragmented voter base with the ruling AAP holding 27 per cent vote share and the Congress 30.4 per cent. In terms of seats, the Congress is projected to win 7 and AAP 4, leaving 2 for the NDA.

In Bihar, the NDA projection is strong at 50.8 per cent, and is projected to sweep the state with 33 seats, leaving only 7 for the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

Uttar Pradesh, a key battleground state, is all set to go with the BJP, as the ABP-CVoter opinion poll projects 73 seats out of the total 80 seats for the NDA. Regional players SP+ command a significant 38.1 per cent in the state, but will manage to get only seven seats.

Maharashtra anticipates a relatively even split between I.N.D.I.A (18 seats) and NDA (30 seats), indicating a major battleground for both coalitions.

Still short of ‘Mission 400’, but NDA poised for a return

As far as the overall projection is concerned, the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll shows, the NDA is likely to get 46.6 per cent votes, up from 45.1 in 2019. In contrast, the opposition bloc of I.N.D.I.A is expected to get a vote share of 39.8 per cent. In 2019, these parties, not contesting as a bloc, had garnered 36.6 per cent of the total votes.  

Though the rise in I.N.D.I.A seats hints at an improving coalition strategy, which may impact future legislative dynamics, the NDA sustains its majority, showcasing continued voter confidence.

The Congress party, leading the I.N.D.I.A bloc shows only a marginal growth in its prospects. The party's total vote share, in fact, is projected to dip slightly from 19.5 per cent in 2019 to 19.2 per cent in 2024, but its seat count is expected to go up from 52 to 65. The bloc’s performance is strong in certain states like Tamil Nadu, due to alliances with strong regional parties like the DMK, but nationally it struggles to compete with the BJP's appeal.

Methodology

The survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 18 plus adults statewide, all confirmed voters.
Sample size: 57566
Survey date: 11 March to 12 April, 2024
LS seats covered: 543
Margin Of Error (regional level): .+_/_- five per cent 
Confidence Level: 95 per cent